Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Conglomerate PPP polls - After 18 State - Pre-election

I now have all 18 of the new PPP polls compiled.    I have taken all of the PPP polls that have been conducted since Gingrich has been included.   I extracted earlier versions of states that have been polled more than once during that time, saving only the latest of those states.  There are 23 states included in this study.  I will show categories as follows: Overall, each of the age categories, Conservative, Men, and Women.  I will show them both not only as a simple average, but also as a weighted average using the state delegates as the means by which I weight them.  For some reason, with Paul removed and Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty added, there are a whole lot more undecided and someone else.  Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty are all shown in the undecide/someone else category.
Overall Average-------------------------------------Overall Weighted Average
Romney     19.35-------------------------------------------------19.34
Palin                17.04--------------------------------------------------17.64
Huckabee      16.91-------------------------------------------------17.11
Gingrich          15.87---------------------------------------------------16.00
All others are either undecided or support someone else
In order to shorten this posting a little, let me just summarize the age division breakdown as follows:
Palin was best with the 18-29 year olds by a pretty large margin, then Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee
For 30-45 year olds Romney had the best average, then Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich
HOWEVER, with the weighted average for this age group we now have Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney
In the 46-65 year old group, Romney lead both averages, then Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, HOWEVER, Huckabee switches places with Palin for the weighted average.
 In the over 65 division, Romney lead both averages by a large margin, then Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin
 Conservative Average                                          Conservative Weighted Average
Romney---- 18.48----------------------------------------------------------------------18.25
Palin------------- 18.30----------------------------------------------------------------------19.56
Gingrich--------- 18.26----------------------------------------------------------------------17.84
Huckabee------- 17.57--------------------------------------------------------------------- 17.67
     All others are undecided or someone else
Women Average ------------------------------------------------  Women Weighted Average
Romney --- 19.78--------------------------------------------------------------19.84
Huckabee---- 18.78----------------------------------------------------------------------------19.09
Palin------------ 16.22----------------------------------------------------------------------------16.75
Gingrich------- 13.43--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.07
All others are undecided or support someone else at this time
Men Average-------------------------------------------------Men Weighted Average
Romney -----19.09----------------------------------------------------19.03
Gingrich------18.17---------------------------------------------------- 18.63
Palin---------- 17.43--------------------------------------------------- 18.42
Huckabee--- 15.26---------------------------------------------------- 15.37    
All others are undecided or support someone else.
 If anyone would like to put this into a nice, neat posting, feel free.  I find the data interesting, and look forward to hearing the spin.   The MOE on this much data would be very, very small.  So, for these particular states, this is pretty much the story thus far.  By the way the states involved in all except the age breakdown are:
KY, CO, IA, SC, LA, NV, FL, PA, IL, AK, TX, NH, ME, CA, MI, WV, CT, NC, OH, and WA
By the way, the MOE on this data would be extremely small.  So, what you see is what you get.
Have fun.   I would like to hear your comments.  Don't stray too far from the subject matter please.
I want to add a couple more things:
1)  Of the 23 states, how many did each person win?
Romney:  8.5   Huckabee: 5   Palin: 7  Gingrich: 2.5
IF it were a winner take all in these states what would the delegate count be?
Romney:  503.5    Palin:  376   Huckabee:   233   Gingrich:  116.5
  Note: SC treated as a tie

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Updated Conglomerate PPP polls

Nearly every week we get new PPP polls from one or more states.  But, even the best of us with numbers can't tabulate in our heads the conglomerate results.  I have taken all of the PPP polls that have been conducted since Gingrich has been included.  I extracted earlier versions of states that have been polled more than once during that time, saving only the latest of those states.  There are eighteen states included in this study.  I will show categories as follows: Overall, each of the age categories, Conservative, Men, and Women.  I will show them both not only as a simple average, but also as a weighted average using the state delegates as the means by which I weight them.  A couple things must be noted:  For some reason PPP didn't show us the age breakdown on some of the states, so those states will only include states for which the data was given. 
Overall Average-------------------------------------Overall Weighted Average
Romney     21.94-------------------------------------------------21.48
Gingrich    17.44--------------------------------------------------18.13
Huckabee  17.11-------------------------------------------------17.08
Palin           16.44---------------------------------------------------17.2
All others are either undecided or support someone else
In order to shorten this posting a little, let me just summarize the age division breakdown as follows:
Palin was best with the 18-29 year olds by a pretty large margin, then Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich
For 30-45 year olds Romney had the best average and highest weighted average, then Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin
In the 46-65 year old group, Romney lead both averages, then Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin
 In the over 65 division, Romney lead both averages by a large margin, then Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee
 Conservative Average                                          Conservative Weighted Average
Romney---- 21.0-----------------------------------------------21.53
Gingrich---- 20.0-----------------------------------------------20.04
Palin--------- 17.89-----------------------------------------------19.24
Huckabee--- 17.5---------------------------------------------- 17.53         OUCH!!!!  Dead Last still of top FOUR
All others are undecided or someone else
Women Average ------------------------------------------------  Women Weighted Average
Romney --- 22.33--------------------------------------------------------------21.68
Huckabee-- 19.06------------------------------------------------------------19.27
Palin--------- 16.17------------------------------------------------------------16.7
Gingrich----- 15.06------------------------------------------------------------ 15.43
All others are undecided or support someone else at this time
Men Average-------------------------------------------------Men Weighted Average
Romney -----21.61----------------------------------------------------21.13
Gingrich------19.67---------------------------------------------------- 20.43
Palin---------- 16.61--------------------------------------------------- 17.52
Huckabee--- 15.5---------------------------------------------------- 15.19   Pretty weak with the men Huck! 
All others are undecided or support someone else.
 If anyone would like to put this into a nice, neat posting, feel free.  I find the data interesting, and look forward to hearing the spin.   The MOE on this much data would be very, very small.  So, for these particular states, this is pretty much the story thus far.  By the way the states involved in all except the age breakdown are:
KY, CO, IA, SC, LA, NV, FL, PA, IL, AK, TX, NH, ME, CA, MI, WV. and CT
One thing I noticed about the last 6 states' data is that there are a lot more undeciided and for someone not listed than there had been in previous polls.  They dropped Ron Paul, but added several, so that should have been near a wash.  I'm wondering if they asked the question any differently.
By the way, the MOE on this data would be extremely small.  So, what you see is what you get.
Have fun.   I would like to hear your comments.  Don't stray too far from the subject matter please.
I want to add a couple more things:
1)  Of the 18 states, how many did each person win?
Romney:  10.5   Huckabee: 5   Gingrich: 2.5   Palin: 0
IF it were a winner take all in these states what would the delegate count be?
Romney:  548.5    Huckabee:   239   Gingrich:  211.5  Palin:  0
Note: SC treated as a tie

Conglomerate PPP polls - Updated

Nearly every week we get new PPP polls from one or more states.  But, even the best of us with numbers can't tabulate in our heads the conglomerate results.  I have taken all of the PPP polls that have been conducted since Gingrich has been included.  I extracted earlier versions of states that have been polled more than once during that time, saving only the latest of those states.  There are eighteen states included in this study.  I will show categories as follows: Overall, each of the age categories, Conservative, Men, and Women.  I will show them both not only as a simple average, but also as a weighted average using the state delegates as the means by which I weight them.  A couple things must be noted:  For some reason PPP didn't show us the age breakdown on some of the states, so those states will only include states for which the data was given. 
Overall Average-------------------------------------Overall Weighted Average
Romney     21.94-------------------------------------------------21.48
Gingrich    17.44--------------------------------------------------18.13
Huckabee  17.11-------------------------------------------------17.08
Palin           16.44---------------------------------------------------17.2
All others are either undecided or support someone else
In order to shorten this posting a little, let me just summarize the age division breakdown as follows:
Palin was best with the 18-29 year olds by a pretty large margin, then Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich
For 30-45 year olds Romney had the best average and highest weighted average, then Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin
In the 46-65 year old group, Romney lead both averages, then Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin
 In the over 65 division, Romney lead both averages by a large margin, then Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee
 Conservative Average                                          Conservative Weighted Average
Romney---- 21.0-----------------------------------------------21.53
Gingrich---- 20.0-----------------------------------------------20.04
Palin--------- 17.89-----------------------------------------------19.24
Huckabee--- 17.5---------------------------------------------- 17.53         OUCH!!!!  Dead Last still of top FOUR
All others are undecided or someone else
Women Average ------------------------------------------------  Women Weighted Average
Romney --- 22.33--------------------------------------------------------------21.68
Huckabee-- 19.06------------------------------------------------------------19.27
Palin--------- 16.17------------------------------------------------------------16.7
Gingrich----- 15.06------------------------------------------------------------ 15.43
All others are undecided or support someone else at this time
Men Average-------------------------------------------------Men Weighted Average
Romney -----21.61----------------------------------------------------21.13
Gingrich------19.67---------------------------------------------------- 20.43
Palin---------- 16.61--------------------------------------------------- 17.52
Huckabee--- 15.5---------------------------------------------------- 15.19   Pretty weak with the men Huck! 
All others are undecided or support someone else.
 If anyone would like to put this into a nice, neat posting, feel free.  I find the data interesting, and look forward to hearing the spin.   The MOE on this much data would be very, very small.  So, for these particular states, this is pretty much the story thus far.  By the way the states involved in all except the age breakdown are:
KY, CO, IA, SC, LA, NV, FL, PA, IL, AK, TX, NH, ME, CA, MI, WV. and CT
One thing I noticed about the last 6 states' data is that there are a lot more undeciided and for someone not listed than there had been in previous polls.  They dropped Ron Paul, but added several, so that should have been near a wash.  I'm wondering if they asked the question any differently.
By the way, the MOE on this data would be extremely small.  So, what you see is what you get.
Have fun.   I would like to hear your comments.  Don't stray too far from the subject matter please.
I want to add a couple more things:
1)  Of the 18 states, how many did each person win?
Romney:  10.5   Huckabee: 5   Gingrich: 2.5   Palin: 0
IF it were a winner take all in these states what would the delegate count be?
Romney:  548.5    Huckabee:   239   Gingrich:  211.5  Palin:  0
Note: SC treated as a tie